Tuesday, November 02, 2004


7:02--Chris Matthews just classified Virginia as "too close to call." Granted, it's only two minutes after the close of polls, but that has to be seen as a (very small) plus for Kerry.

7:06--Chris Bowers points out that in these early minutes, solidly conservative South Carolina has also yet to be called for Bush. (According to MSNBC, Bush has picked up Georgia and Indiana, while Kerry has secured Vermont.)

7:14--Daily Kos points out that Kentucky is also being called for Bush.

7:31--CNN has called West Virginia for Bush. Not great news for Kerry that it could be called so early.

7:32--As expected, no word on Ohio.

7:51--The race in Ohio is tight in the very very early-going.

7:53--A reliable media source tells CONTRAPOSITIVE that New Jersey will be called for Kerry right at 8pm. Phew.

7:55--Illinois will also be called immediately for Kerry, CONTRAPOSITIVE is told.

8:03--CNN is calling three out of Maine's four electoral votes for Kerry, with the fourth too close to call. Meanwhile, according to MSNBC Virginia is still too close to call.

8:45--To be clear: Still nothing resembling an upset. Biggest surprises so far are that it took the networks so long to call Virginia for Bush, and that they were able to call West Virginia so quickly.

9:01--Josh Marshall posts about a disturbing story out of Pennsylvania.

9:05--It's worth mentioning, at this point, that the major media organizations have gone awfully deep into the evening without calling a single contested state for either side. That said, it has to be seen as good news for Kerry that neither Missouri nor Colorado could be called quickly for Bush.

9:31--C-SPAN has a great electoral college map. Its state-by-state snapshot beats anything being provided by the television networks.

9:42--ABC news reports that the President will be speaking to reporters soon. Terry Moran calls this "unusual." But it is not unusual as far as Bush goes--he did the same exact thing last cycle, and the move was later seen, retrospectively, as a pivotal moment in the 2000 post-election Florida fight.

9:54--At this hour, Kerry trails in Florida by about 170,000 votes. Notably, though, votes have not yet been counted in either Miami-Dade or Palm Beach counties. 0% of precincts reporting there.

10:08--Chris Matthews calls Arkansas for Bush. Not a surprise, and not a surprise it took a while.

10:33--Given the 200,000+ vote lead the President is currently enjoying in Florida and the county-by-county breakdowns, it's difficult to see a Kerry path to victory that doesn't depend on a strong Democractic tilt to absentee ballots.

10:47--Let me state the obvious. The President's decision to invite the press into the White House was a political move. It was not a window into his soul.

10:49--MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Kerry. About time the good guys got some good news.

10:51--Jeff Greenfield calls the Pennsylvania Kerry victory the "first major disappointment for either campaign." He points out that Bush made 41 trips to the Keystone state.

11:38--Kerry trails by about 150,000 votes in Ohio with about 58% of precincts reporting. Notably, Cuyahoga County (home of Cleveland)--where Kerry leads by 50,000 votes--has reported results for only about 33% of precincts.

11:49--CBS News has called Florida for Bush. Ugh.

11:56--Kerry has taken the lead in Wisconsin: 51%-48%. He also holds leads in Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. It looks likely that everything will come down to Ohio.

1:00--NBC has just called Ohio for Bush. If they're correct, we are just about at the end of the road.

1:50--It doesn't look good, but at this hour it's definitely not over and may not be for a couple weeks. I'm going to get some rest.

CONTRAPOSITIVE is edited by Dan Aibel. Dan's a playwright. He lives in New York City.