contrapositive

FORGET THE EXIT POLLS But if you just can't help yourself, here are the early numbers according to Jerome Armstrong over at MyDD.com, a source CONTRAPOSITIVE considers credible:

	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH

Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57

Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

UPDATE: Jonah Goldberg at The National Review is questioning the veracity of the numbers now circulating. He alleges that the Pennsylvania figures, in particular, are a Kerry campaign fabrication.

Kerry supporters in the field--and those who have not yet voted--would do well to operate under the assumption that Goldberg is right.

UPDATE UPDATE: The Mystery Pollster also warns against trusting mid-day exit polls. His point about the absence of any "weighting" mechanism seems especially important to keep in mind.