contrapositive

Is North Dakota In Play? That's one of the questions raised by Howard Dean's recent swing through the Peace Garden state.

The short answer?

Probably not.

Even in his 1996 re-election bid (with Ross Perot running interference) Bill Clinton lost North Dakota by nearly six percent.

That said, six percent in North Dakota is only about 18,000 votes.

Now, I don't know if there are 18,000 disenchanted, persuadable voters in the state (let alone the larger number that'll be needed to make up the ground Dean loses because of his positions on gays, Iraq, etc.)

But if Dean's grassroots strategy is all it's cracked up to be, and if his progessive base is as energized as it seems, the Democratic result should be better than the 61%-33% spanking that Al Gore received last time around.