Tuesday, November 07, 2006

HOUSE THREAD 5:55pm--Read this thread from the top down.

The cheat sheet below references a 7pm closing time for Indiana and Kentucky, but some polling places will close in those states at 6pm ET. So we may get some results just after the hour, although you wouldn't know it from watching the networks. And I haven't been able to confirm it.

More in a few minutes.

6:05--Looks like I was right--no IN or KY results in sight. Seems we'll have to wait till 7pm.

6:42--Results are coming in in KY.

6:52--Yarmuth (D) up 1000 votes in KY's crucial 3rd district with 15% reporting.

7:04--Yarmuth (D) still up--but only 2200 votes with 37% reporting.

7:06--Ellsworth (D) way up in the early going in Indiana's 8th district.

Donnelly (D) up 8000+ votes in Indiana's 2nd with 26% reporting. Dems need this seat and at least early, it looks good.

7:32--Yarmuth still up--by a bit more than 1000 votes with 68% reporting. Still the only race with a substantial portion of votes in.

7:59--Ellsworth wins in Indiana's 8th (!) according to Fox News. First pick-up for Dems.

8:05--Yarmuth holding onto an almost 4000 vote lead in KY, with 81% reporting. Hang on.

8:17--In Indiana's 3rd, Souder (R) holds a slight lead in the early-going. Hill (D) leads early in the 9th. Link.

8:42--Still nothing resembling a surprise has happened. But Lucas (D) has been closing the gap with Davis (R) in KY's 8th district. If Lucas were to come out on top, that would bode awfully well for Dems.

9:04--Negron up by about 1000 votes in Mark Foley's seat in FL. 40% reporting.

9:21--To recap: Still no real upsets or even minor surprises. Dems seem to be on track for a good number of pick-ups, but it's far from clear that they'll win big--or even that they'll get the 15 they need for control of the House.

9:24--Yarmuth wins in Kentucky's 3rd district, according to CNN. MSNBC agreees. Appears that he won by 3%--with 100% reporting. The biggest House win for Democrats so far.

9:43--Donnelly (D) over incumbent Rep. Chocola in Indiana's 2nd. The prospects of a wave build...

9:52--Buchanan (R) holds in Florida's 13th, according to Fox News. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first hotly-contested race of any kind (including gubernatorial) that Repbulicans have been able to hold. So I think it's safe to say that a 45+ seat Democratic wave is off the table at this point.

That said, Shaw (R) is in deep trouble in the FL 22nd. And that's very worrisome for the GOP.

10:04--Rahm Emanuel steps onto MSNBC to call the IN-09, CT-05 and NH-02--all for the Dems. That comes to 5 seats for Dems by my count [correction--six]. That's 1/3 of the way there.

10:15--Space (D) wins in the OH-18 and Sherwood (R) goes down in the PA 10th.

That makes it eight seats: KY-03, IN-08, IN-02, IN-09, CT-05, NH-02, OH-18 and PA-10.

10:26--Worth mentioning at this point that it's becoming increasingly difficult to see how the Republicans could hold the House.

10:29--Fox News says Arcuri (D) wins in NY 24th. That's big--it means more Republicans are likely to fall in NY.

10:54--Daily Kos is calling PA-07 for Sestak (D). That makes 10 seats by my count.

11:00--Shuler (D) wins in NC-11, Klein (D) beats Shaw in FL-22 and in AZ-08 Giffords (D) wins. That puts us at 13 pick-ups for the Dems.

11:05--Bill Kristol predicts a 30 seat net gain for Dems. Meanwhile, Reynolds (R) holds on in NY's 26th--according to Fox News. He has survived, but not a good night for him has RSCC chair.

11:07--Gillibrand wins in NY-20. Call it 14.

11:12--Mahoney (D) wins in FL-16 (Foley's old seat.) By my count that makes it 15--although no one is calling it yet. But they're not including all the seats named by Rahm Emanuel.

11:27--The networks are now calling it. Seems like we're on our way toward a big night for the Dems--perhaps 25+ seats.

12:12--Getting ready to call it a night. Lots to celebrate and to think about. We're now at 20 seats, and the margin is likely to rise at least a bit more.

CONTRAPOSITIVE is edited by Dan Aibel. Dan's a playwright. He lives in New York City.